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Probability Dilemma


What's the probability that the next coin flip is heads?Probability of tossing coinsVerification of probability answerHow would you approach this problem with Bayes: Coins with different biasesQuick probability question on rolling 2 Diehow to find probability of two coinsDie roll and coin flipI have a bag with 3 coins in it. One of them is a fair coin, but the others are biased trick coins.How to apply probability for flipping a coin and tossing a die?Probability of multiple interrelated events simultaneously occurring






.everyoneloves__top-leaderboard:empty,.everyoneloves__mid-leaderboard:empty,.everyoneloves__bot-mid-leaderboard:empty margin-bottom:0;








3












$begingroup$


The teacher gave us a question:




We flip a coin. If it was Heads, we roll a die and if it was Tails, we flip three other coins. What's the probability of exactly having one coin as Heads?




I first calculated $n(S)= 1
cdot 6 + 1 cdot 2 cdot 2 cdot 2$
, then $n(a) = 1 cdot 6 + 1 cdot 1 cdot 1 cdot 3$. $P(a)=n(a)/n(S) = 9/14$.



For calculating $n(S)$ I first considered the case of the (first) coin being Heads and multiplied by $6$ (for the die), then calculated the case of the (first) coin being Tails and a $2 cdot 2 cdot 2$ for the coins. You'll get a sense of what I did for calculating $n(a)$. The teacher told that my answer was incorrect and then wrote the answer as $6 cdot (1/12) + 3 cdot (1/16)=11/16$ and told me to find the problem of my answer for the next session. I don't think there's anything wrong with my answer and my teacher's wrong.










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$







  • 2




    $begingroup$
    The answer is not $9/16$ but $11/16$ so if the RHS was a part of the answer of the teacher then he/she made a small mistake there. The LHS is okay but more cumbersome than needed.
    $endgroup$
    – drhab
    Jun 15 at 8:38







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Re your method of calculation: Did you know that you can win the powerball lottery with a probability of $frac12$? There are two posisble cases: You win or you don't. One of the two cases is success, hence $p=frac 12$.
    $endgroup$
    – Hagen von Eitzen
    Jun 15 at 8:40






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @HagenvonEitzen: I think what this method of calculation implies is that it would dramatically improve my chances of wining the lottery if I make a firm decision to roll a die 300 times if I win, but not roll anything if I lose.
    $endgroup$
    – Henning Makholm
    Jun 15 at 22:15


















3












$begingroup$


The teacher gave us a question:




We flip a coin. If it was Heads, we roll a die and if it was Tails, we flip three other coins. What's the probability of exactly having one coin as Heads?




I first calculated $n(S)= 1
cdot 6 + 1 cdot 2 cdot 2 cdot 2$
, then $n(a) = 1 cdot 6 + 1 cdot 1 cdot 1 cdot 3$. $P(a)=n(a)/n(S) = 9/14$.



For calculating $n(S)$ I first considered the case of the (first) coin being Heads and multiplied by $6$ (for the die), then calculated the case of the (first) coin being Tails and a $2 cdot 2 cdot 2$ for the coins. You'll get a sense of what I did for calculating $n(a)$. The teacher told that my answer was incorrect and then wrote the answer as $6 cdot (1/12) + 3 cdot (1/16)=11/16$ and told me to find the problem of my answer for the next session. I don't think there's anything wrong with my answer and my teacher's wrong.










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$







  • 2




    $begingroup$
    The answer is not $9/16$ but $11/16$ so if the RHS was a part of the answer of the teacher then he/she made a small mistake there. The LHS is okay but more cumbersome than needed.
    $endgroup$
    – drhab
    Jun 15 at 8:38







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Re your method of calculation: Did you know that you can win the powerball lottery with a probability of $frac12$? There are two posisble cases: You win or you don't. One of the two cases is success, hence $p=frac 12$.
    $endgroup$
    – Hagen von Eitzen
    Jun 15 at 8:40






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @HagenvonEitzen: I think what this method of calculation implies is that it would dramatically improve my chances of wining the lottery if I make a firm decision to roll a die 300 times if I win, but not roll anything if I lose.
    $endgroup$
    – Henning Makholm
    Jun 15 at 22:15














3












3








3


1



$begingroup$


The teacher gave us a question:




We flip a coin. If it was Heads, we roll a die and if it was Tails, we flip three other coins. What's the probability of exactly having one coin as Heads?




I first calculated $n(S)= 1
cdot 6 + 1 cdot 2 cdot 2 cdot 2$
, then $n(a) = 1 cdot 6 + 1 cdot 1 cdot 1 cdot 3$. $P(a)=n(a)/n(S) = 9/14$.



For calculating $n(S)$ I first considered the case of the (first) coin being Heads and multiplied by $6$ (for the die), then calculated the case of the (first) coin being Tails and a $2 cdot 2 cdot 2$ for the coins. You'll get a sense of what I did for calculating $n(a)$. The teacher told that my answer was incorrect and then wrote the answer as $6 cdot (1/12) + 3 cdot (1/16)=11/16$ and told me to find the problem of my answer for the next session. I don't think there's anything wrong with my answer and my teacher's wrong.










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$




The teacher gave us a question:




We flip a coin. If it was Heads, we roll a die and if it was Tails, we flip three other coins. What's the probability of exactly having one coin as Heads?




I first calculated $n(S)= 1
cdot 6 + 1 cdot 2 cdot 2 cdot 2$
, then $n(a) = 1 cdot 6 + 1 cdot 1 cdot 1 cdot 3$. $P(a)=n(a)/n(S) = 9/14$.



For calculating $n(S)$ I first considered the case of the (first) coin being Heads and multiplied by $6$ (for the die), then calculated the case of the (first) coin being Tails and a $2 cdot 2 cdot 2$ for the coins. You'll get a sense of what I did for calculating $n(a)$. The teacher told that my answer was incorrect and then wrote the answer as $6 cdot (1/12) + 3 cdot (1/16)=11/16$ and told me to find the problem of my answer for the next session. I don't think there's anything wrong with my answer and my teacher's wrong.







probability






share|cite|improve this question















share|cite|improve this question













share|cite|improve this question




share|cite|improve this question








edited Jun 15 at 8:47









Especially Lime

23.3k2 gold badges31 silver badges59 bronze badges




23.3k2 gold badges31 silver badges59 bronze badges










asked Jun 15 at 8:28









Sean GoudarziSean Goudarzi

1709 bronze badges




1709 bronze badges







  • 2




    $begingroup$
    The answer is not $9/16$ but $11/16$ so if the RHS was a part of the answer of the teacher then he/she made a small mistake there. The LHS is okay but more cumbersome than needed.
    $endgroup$
    – drhab
    Jun 15 at 8:38







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Re your method of calculation: Did you know that you can win the powerball lottery with a probability of $frac12$? There are two posisble cases: You win or you don't. One of the two cases is success, hence $p=frac 12$.
    $endgroup$
    – Hagen von Eitzen
    Jun 15 at 8:40






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @HagenvonEitzen: I think what this method of calculation implies is that it would dramatically improve my chances of wining the lottery if I make a firm decision to roll a die 300 times if I win, but not roll anything if I lose.
    $endgroup$
    – Henning Makholm
    Jun 15 at 22:15













  • 2




    $begingroup$
    The answer is not $9/16$ but $11/16$ so if the RHS was a part of the answer of the teacher then he/she made a small mistake there. The LHS is okay but more cumbersome than needed.
    $endgroup$
    – drhab
    Jun 15 at 8:38







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Re your method of calculation: Did you know that you can win the powerball lottery with a probability of $frac12$? There are two posisble cases: You win or you don't. One of the two cases is success, hence $p=frac 12$.
    $endgroup$
    – Hagen von Eitzen
    Jun 15 at 8:40






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @HagenvonEitzen: I think what this method of calculation implies is that it would dramatically improve my chances of wining the lottery if I make a firm decision to roll a die 300 times if I win, but not roll anything if I lose.
    $endgroup$
    – Henning Makholm
    Jun 15 at 22:15








2




2




$begingroup$
The answer is not $9/16$ but $11/16$ so if the RHS was a part of the answer of the teacher then he/she made a small mistake there. The LHS is okay but more cumbersome than needed.
$endgroup$
– drhab
Jun 15 at 8:38





$begingroup$
The answer is not $9/16$ but $11/16$ so if the RHS was a part of the answer of the teacher then he/she made a small mistake there. The LHS is okay but more cumbersome than needed.
$endgroup$
– drhab
Jun 15 at 8:38





1




1




$begingroup$
Re your method of calculation: Did you know that you can win the powerball lottery with a probability of $frac12$? There are two posisble cases: You win or you don't. One of the two cases is success, hence $p=frac 12$.
$endgroup$
– Hagen von Eitzen
Jun 15 at 8:40




$begingroup$
Re your method of calculation: Did you know that you can win the powerball lottery with a probability of $frac12$? There are two posisble cases: You win or you don't. One of the two cases is success, hence $p=frac 12$.
$endgroup$
– Hagen von Eitzen
Jun 15 at 8:40




1




1




$begingroup$
@HagenvonEitzen: I think what this method of calculation implies is that it would dramatically improve my chances of wining the lottery if I make a firm decision to roll a die 300 times if I win, but not roll anything if I lose.
$endgroup$
– Henning Makholm
Jun 15 at 22:15





$begingroup$
@HagenvonEitzen: I think what this method of calculation implies is that it would dramatically improve my chances of wining the lottery if I make a firm decision to roll a die 300 times if I win, but not roll anything if I lose.
$endgroup$
– Henning Makholm
Jun 15 at 22:15











4 Answers
4






active

oldest

votes


















5












$begingroup$

It looks like you are trying to calculate the number of states and divide the number of states fitting some criteria by the total number of states. One thing to note with your approach is that not all of the states you sum up are equally likely. In particular if I asked what is the probability of the first coin flip being heads you would get 6/14, but we know it to be 1/2=7/14



A more systematic approach is to look at the probability of the first coin being heads. If it isn't heads then we flip the three coins so you would need the probability of exactly one of those coins being heads:



$P($H$)+P($1 H out of 3$|$T$)P($T$) = (1/2)+(3/8)(1/2)=11/16$






share|cite|improve this answer









$endgroup$




















    6












    $begingroup$

    If the first flip is head, then the die won't produce coins showing head, hence we will have exactly one head. (You could just leave the die alone).
    If the first flip is tails, then there are exactly three out of eight outcomes from the three extra coins that result in exactly one head.
    Hence
    $$p=frac12cdot 1+frac12cdotfrac38 $$






    share|cite|improve this answer









    $endgroup$




















      1












      $begingroup$

      Where you have gone wrong is that there are $14$ different possible results of this process, but they are not all equally likely, so you can't just count how many are successful. (An easy way to see this doesn't work is that the probability of getting exactly one head can't depend on the number of faces of the die, but if you apply your method with a $20$-sided die, say, you will get a completely different answer.)



      In fact each coin-die combination has probability $frac12timesfrac16=frac112$, and each four-coin combination has probability $frac12timesfrac12timesfrac12timesfrac12=frac116$. Since your successes counted $6$ of the former and $3$ of the latter, the correct answer is $frac612+frac316$.






      share|cite|improve this answer









      $endgroup$




















        1












        $begingroup$

        Alternative route:



        Throw $4$ coins.



        Let $H_1$ denote the first gives heads, and let $E$ denote the event that exactly one coin gives heads.



        Then $H_1cup E$ can be recognized as the event that the first coin gives heads or it does not and exactly one of the other coins gives heads.



        $$P(H_1cup E)=P(H_1)+P(E)-P(H_1cap E)=frac12+4timesfrac116-frac116=frac1116$$






        share|cite|improve this answer











        $endgroup$















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          4 Answers
          4






          active

          oldest

          votes








          4 Answers
          4






          active

          oldest

          votes









          active

          oldest

          votes






          active

          oldest

          votes









          5












          $begingroup$

          It looks like you are trying to calculate the number of states and divide the number of states fitting some criteria by the total number of states. One thing to note with your approach is that not all of the states you sum up are equally likely. In particular if I asked what is the probability of the first coin flip being heads you would get 6/14, but we know it to be 1/2=7/14



          A more systematic approach is to look at the probability of the first coin being heads. If it isn't heads then we flip the three coins so you would need the probability of exactly one of those coins being heads:



          $P($H$)+P($1 H out of 3$|$T$)P($T$) = (1/2)+(3/8)(1/2)=11/16$






          share|cite|improve this answer









          $endgroup$

















            5












            $begingroup$

            It looks like you are trying to calculate the number of states and divide the number of states fitting some criteria by the total number of states. One thing to note with your approach is that not all of the states you sum up are equally likely. In particular if I asked what is the probability of the first coin flip being heads you would get 6/14, but we know it to be 1/2=7/14



            A more systematic approach is to look at the probability of the first coin being heads. If it isn't heads then we flip the three coins so you would need the probability of exactly one of those coins being heads:



            $P($H$)+P($1 H out of 3$|$T$)P($T$) = (1/2)+(3/8)(1/2)=11/16$






            share|cite|improve this answer









            $endgroup$















              5












              5








              5





              $begingroup$

              It looks like you are trying to calculate the number of states and divide the number of states fitting some criteria by the total number of states. One thing to note with your approach is that not all of the states you sum up are equally likely. In particular if I asked what is the probability of the first coin flip being heads you would get 6/14, but we know it to be 1/2=7/14



              A more systematic approach is to look at the probability of the first coin being heads. If it isn't heads then we flip the three coins so you would need the probability of exactly one of those coins being heads:



              $P($H$)+P($1 H out of 3$|$T$)P($T$) = (1/2)+(3/8)(1/2)=11/16$






              share|cite|improve this answer









              $endgroup$



              It looks like you are trying to calculate the number of states and divide the number of states fitting some criteria by the total number of states. One thing to note with your approach is that not all of the states you sum up are equally likely. In particular if I asked what is the probability of the first coin flip being heads you would get 6/14, but we know it to be 1/2=7/14



              A more systematic approach is to look at the probability of the first coin being heads. If it isn't heads then we flip the three coins so you would need the probability of exactly one of those coins being heads:



              $P($H$)+P($1 H out of 3$|$T$)P($T$) = (1/2)+(3/8)(1/2)=11/16$







              share|cite|improve this answer












              share|cite|improve this answer



              share|cite|improve this answer










              answered Jun 15 at 8:40









              Kitter CatterKitter Catter

              1,3989 silver badges17 bronze badges




              1,3989 silver badges17 bronze badges























                  6












                  $begingroup$

                  If the first flip is head, then the die won't produce coins showing head, hence we will have exactly one head. (You could just leave the die alone).
                  If the first flip is tails, then there are exactly three out of eight outcomes from the three extra coins that result in exactly one head.
                  Hence
                  $$p=frac12cdot 1+frac12cdotfrac38 $$






                  share|cite|improve this answer









                  $endgroup$

















                    6












                    $begingroup$

                    If the first flip is head, then the die won't produce coins showing head, hence we will have exactly one head. (You could just leave the die alone).
                    If the first flip is tails, then there are exactly three out of eight outcomes from the three extra coins that result in exactly one head.
                    Hence
                    $$p=frac12cdot 1+frac12cdotfrac38 $$






                    share|cite|improve this answer









                    $endgroup$















                      6












                      6








                      6





                      $begingroup$

                      If the first flip is head, then the die won't produce coins showing head, hence we will have exactly one head. (You could just leave the die alone).
                      If the first flip is tails, then there are exactly three out of eight outcomes from the three extra coins that result in exactly one head.
                      Hence
                      $$p=frac12cdot 1+frac12cdotfrac38 $$






                      share|cite|improve this answer









                      $endgroup$



                      If the first flip is head, then the die won't produce coins showing head, hence we will have exactly one head. (You could just leave the die alone).
                      If the first flip is tails, then there are exactly three out of eight outcomes from the three extra coins that result in exactly one head.
                      Hence
                      $$p=frac12cdot 1+frac12cdotfrac38 $$







                      share|cite|improve this answer












                      share|cite|improve this answer



                      share|cite|improve this answer










                      answered Jun 15 at 8:35









                      Hagen von EitzenHagen von Eitzen

                      291k23 gold badges279 silver badges512 bronze badges




                      291k23 gold badges279 silver badges512 bronze badges





















                          1












                          $begingroup$

                          Where you have gone wrong is that there are $14$ different possible results of this process, but they are not all equally likely, so you can't just count how many are successful. (An easy way to see this doesn't work is that the probability of getting exactly one head can't depend on the number of faces of the die, but if you apply your method with a $20$-sided die, say, you will get a completely different answer.)



                          In fact each coin-die combination has probability $frac12timesfrac16=frac112$, and each four-coin combination has probability $frac12timesfrac12timesfrac12timesfrac12=frac116$. Since your successes counted $6$ of the former and $3$ of the latter, the correct answer is $frac612+frac316$.






                          share|cite|improve this answer









                          $endgroup$

















                            1












                            $begingroup$

                            Where you have gone wrong is that there are $14$ different possible results of this process, but they are not all equally likely, so you can't just count how many are successful. (An easy way to see this doesn't work is that the probability of getting exactly one head can't depend on the number of faces of the die, but if you apply your method with a $20$-sided die, say, you will get a completely different answer.)



                            In fact each coin-die combination has probability $frac12timesfrac16=frac112$, and each four-coin combination has probability $frac12timesfrac12timesfrac12timesfrac12=frac116$. Since your successes counted $6$ of the former and $3$ of the latter, the correct answer is $frac612+frac316$.






                            share|cite|improve this answer









                            $endgroup$















                              1












                              1








                              1





                              $begingroup$

                              Where you have gone wrong is that there are $14$ different possible results of this process, but they are not all equally likely, so you can't just count how many are successful. (An easy way to see this doesn't work is that the probability of getting exactly one head can't depend on the number of faces of the die, but if you apply your method with a $20$-sided die, say, you will get a completely different answer.)



                              In fact each coin-die combination has probability $frac12timesfrac16=frac112$, and each four-coin combination has probability $frac12timesfrac12timesfrac12timesfrac12=frac116$. Since your successes counted $6$ of the former and $3$ of the latter, the correct answer is $frac612+frac316$.






                              share|cite|improve this answer









                              $endgroup$



                              Where you have gone wrong is that there are $14$ different possible results of this process, but they are not all equally likely, so you can't just count how many are successful. (An easy way to see this doesn't work is that the probability of getting exactly one head can't depend on the number of faces of the die, but if you apply your method with a $20$-sided die, say, you will get a completely different answer.)



                              In fact each coin-die combination has probability $frac12timesfrac16=frac112$, and each four-coin combination has probability $frac12timesfrac12timesfrac12timesfrac12=frac116$. Since your successes counted $6$ of the former and $3$ of the latter, the correct answer is $frac612+frac316$.







                              share|cite|improve this answer












                              share|cite|improve this answer



                              share|cite|improve this answer










                              answered Jun 15 at 8:44









                              Especially LimeEspecially Lime

                              23.3k2 gold badges31 silver badges59 bronze badges




                              23.3k2 gold badges31 silver badges59 bronze badges





















                                  1












                                  $begingroup$

                                  Alternative route:



                                  Throw $4$ coins.



                                  Let $H_1$ denote the first gives heads, and let $E$ denote the event that exactly one coin gives heads.



                                  Then $H_1cup E$ can be recognized as the event that the first coin gives heads or it does not and exactly one of the other coins gives heads.



                                  $$P(H_1cup E)=P(H_1)+P(E)-P(H_1cap E)=frac12+4timesfrac116-frac116=frac1116$$






                                  share|cite|improve this answer











                                  $endgroup$

















                                    1












                                    $begingroup$

                                    Alternative route:



                                    Throw $4$ coins.



                                    Let $H_1$ denote the first gives heads, and let $E$ denote the event that exactly one coin gives heads.



                                    Then $H_1cup E$ can be recognized as the event that the first coin gives heads or it does not and exactly one of the other coins gives heads.



                                    $$P(H_1cup E)=P(H_1)+P(E)-P(H_1cap E)=frac12+4timesfrac116-frac116=frac1116$$






                                    share|cite|improve this answer











                                    $endgroup$















                                      1












                                      1








                                      1





                                      $begingroup$

                                      Alternative route:



                                      Throw $4$ coins.



                                      Let $H_1$ denote the first gives heads, and let $E$ denote the event that exactly one coin gives heads.



                                      Then $H_1cup E$ can be recognized as the event that the first coin gives heads or it does not and exactly one of the other coins gives heads.



                                      $$P(H_1cup E)=P(H_1)+P(E)-P(H_1cap E)=frac12+4timesfrac116-frac116=frac1116$$






                                      share|cite|improve this answer











                                      $endgroup$



                                      Alternative route:



                                      Throw $4$ coins.



                                      Let $H_1$ denote the first gives heads, and let $E$ denote the event that exactly one coin gives heads.



                                      Then $H_1cup E$ can be recognized as the event that the first coin gives heads or it does not and exactly one of the other coins gives heads.



                                      $$P(H_1cup E)=P(H_1)+P(E)-P(H_1cap E)=frac12+4timesfrac116-frac116=frac1116$$







                                      share|cite|improve this answer














                                      share|cite|improve this answer



                                      share|cite|improve this answer








                                      edited Jun 15 at 9:00

























                                      answered Jun 15 at 8:54









                                      drhabdrhab

                                      107k5 gold badges49 silver badges138 bronze badges




                                      107k5 gold badges49 silver badges138 bronze badges



























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