How to handle many time series?Meaning of Moving Average Term in ARIMA

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How to handle many time series?


Meaning of Moving Average Term in ARIMA













5












$begingroup$


At first, I should apologize if this question is not relevant to this website, but since there are some researchers from the management science community, I ask the question here.



I have data for the demand of 1200 products for 25 periods. That is, 1200 time series. I want to predict the demand for each product for the next period (26). However, because of the high-complexity of tuning the parameters $(p,d,q)$ of the ARIMA model, it is not possible to use the ARIMA model.



I have used the time-slicing approach to train ML approaches (random forest, xgboost, catboost, ....) to predict the demand, but it is satisfactory. I would like to know if there is any other approach for demand prediction of 1200 products?



Edit: I have used the following approach. I would be thankful if someone can suggest any idea. At first, I have generated new feature (trend) for each time-slicing time serie as if the demand of a product for a period is increase compared to the previous period (+1 for increase, 0 no difference, -1 decrease) and then clustered time-slicing time series based on the trend data (not the value of demand) and then predict the demand of each product according to the demand of products which fall into the same cluster with KNN. KNN algorithm is trained on the demand values but clustering is trained on trend data. KNN algorithm with a large number of neighbors produces good results but other algorithms such as catboost, xgboost, knn with small k produces poor results.










share|improve this question











$endgroup$









  • 7




    $begingroup$
    Perhaps Stats.SE has more information on time series.
    $endgroup$
    – TheSimpliFire
    Aug 4 at 10:39










  • $begingroup$
    Can't you just train 1200 independent models, one for each product?
    $endgroup$
    – Simon
    Aug 4 at 11:45










  • $begingroup$
    @Simon Since it is needed to tune (p,d,q) parameters, it takes a long time and it is neither acceptable nor applicable.
    $endgroup$
    – Amin Sh
    Aug 4 at 12:09






  • 2




    $begingroup$
    Here is a list of many sych posts at CrossValidated.
    $endgroup$
    – kjetil b halvorsen
    Aug 4 at 19:12






  • 3




    $begingroup$
    @kjetil b halvorsen You seem to be carrying over the practice from Cross Validated of editing posts to remove "Thanks". I think it's stupid to "disallow" "Thanks" and even stupider for someone to edit someone else's post just to remove it. Nevertheless, that seems to be the rule at Cross Validated, so I accepted it there. it doesn't seem to be the rule on this forum, and 'd rather not see it become the rule or practice here. I'm generally against editing other people's posts unless there's a good reason, and I don't think removing "Thanks" is a good reason. Peace out.
    $endgroup$
    – Mark L. Stone
    Aug 5 at 1:26
















5












$begingroup$


At first, I should apologize if this question is not relevant to this website, but since there are some researchers from the management science community, I ask the question here.



I have data for the demand of 1200 products for 25 periods. That is, 1200 time series. I want to predict the demand for each product for the next period (26). However, because of the high-complexity of tuning the parameters $(p,d,q)$ of the ARIMA model, it is not possible to use the ARIMA model.



I have used the time-slicing approach to train ML approaches (random forest, xgboost, catboost, ....) to predict the demand, but it is satisfactory. I would like to know if there is any other approach for demand prediction of 1200 products?



Edit: I have used the following approach. I would be thankful if someone can suggest any idea. At first, I have generated new feature (trend) for each time-slicing time serie as if the demand of a product for a period is increase compared to the previous period (+1 for increase, 0 no difference, -1 decrease) and then clustered time-slicing time series based on the trend data (not the value of demand) and then predict the demand of each product according to the demand of products which fall into the same cluster with KNN. KNN algorithm is trained on the demand values but clustering is trained on trend data. KNN algorithm with a large number of neighbors produces good results but other algorithms such as catboost, xgboost, knn with small k produces poor results.










share|improve this question











$endgroup$









  • 7




    $begingroup$
    Perhaps Stats.SE has more information on time series.
    $endgroup$
    – TheSimpliFire
    Aug 4 at 10:39










  • $begingroup$
    Can't you just train 1200 independent models, one for each product?
    $endgroup$
    – Simon
    Aug 4 at 11:45










  • $begingroup$
    @Simon Since it is needed to tune (p,d,q) parameters, it takes a long time and it is neither acceptable nor applicable.
    $endgroup$
    – Amin Sh
    Aug 4 at 12:09






  • 2




    $begingroup$
    Here is a list of many sych posts at CrossValidated.
    $endgroup$
    – kjetil b halvorsen
    Aug 4 at 19:12






  • 3




    $begingroup$
    @kjetil b halvorsen You seem to be carrying over the practice from Cross Validated of editing posts to remove "Thanks". I think it's stupid to "disallow" "Thanks" and even stupider for someone to edit someone else's post just to remove it. Nevertheless, that seems to be the rule at Cross Validated, so I accepted it there. it doesn't seem to be the rule on this forum, and 'd rather not see it become the rule or practice here. I'm generally against editing other people's posts unless there's a good reason, and I don't think removing "Thanks" is a good reason. Peace out.
    $endgroup$
    – Mark L. Stone
    Aug 5 at 1:26














5












5








5





$begingroup$


At first, I should apologize if this question is not relevant to this website, but since there are some researchers from the management science community, I ask the question here.



I have data for the demand of 1200 products for 25 periods. That is, 1200 time series. I want to predict the demand for each product for the next period (26). However, because of the high-complexity of tuning the parameters $(p,d,q)$ of the ARIMA model, it is not possible to use the ARIMA model.



I have used the time-slicing approach to train ML approaches (random forest, xgboost, catboost, ....) to predict the demand, but it is satisfactory. I would like to know if there is any other approach for demand prediction of 1200 products?



Edit: I have used the following approach. I would be thankful if someone can suggest any idea. At first, I have generated new feature (trend) for each time-slicing time serie as if the demand of a product for a period is increase compared to the previous period (+1 for increase, 0 no difference, -1 decrease) and then clustered time-slicing time series based on the trend data (not the value of demand) and then predict the demand of each product according to the demand of products which fall into the same cluster with KNN. KNN algorithm is trained on the demand values but clustering is trained on trend data. KNN algorithm with a large number of neighbors produces good results but other algorithms such as catboost, xgboost, knn with small k produces poor results.










share|improve this question











$endgroup$




At first, I should apologize if this question is not relevant to this website, but since there are some researchers from the management science community, I ask the question here.



I have data for the demand of 1200 products for 25 periods. That is, 1200 time series. I want to predict the demand for each product for the next period (26). However, because of the high-complexity of tuning the parameters $(p,d,q)$ of the ARIMA model, it is not possible to use the ARIMA model.



I have used the time-slicing approach to train ML approaches (random forest, xgboost, catboost, ....) to predict the demand, but it is satisfactory. I would like to know if there is any other approach for demand prediction of 1200 products?



Edit: I have used the following approach. I would be thankful if someone can suggest any idea. At first, I have generated new feature (trend) for each time-slicing time serie as if the demand of a product for a period is increase compared to the previous period (+1 for increase, 0 no difference, -1 decrease) and then clustered time-slicing time series based on the trend data (not the value of demand) and then predict the demand of each product according to the demand of products which fall into the same cluster with KNN. KNN algorithm is trained on the demand values but clustering is trained on trend data. KNN algorithm with a large number of neighbors produces good results but other algorithms such as catboost, xgboost, knn with small k produces poor results.







time-series forecasting






share|improve this question















share|improve this question













share|improve this question




share|improve this question








edited Aug 5 at 14:01







Amin Sh

















asked Aug 4 at 10:35









Amin ShAmin Sh

3931 silver badge9 bronze badges




3931 silver badge9 bronze badges










  • 7




    $begingroup$
    Perhaps Stats.SE has more information on time series.
    $endgroup$
    – TheSimpliFire
    Aug 4 at 10:39










  • $begingroup$
    Can't you just train 1200 independent models, one for each product?
    $endgroup$
    – Simon
    Aug 4 at 11:45










  • $begingroup$
    @Simon Since it is needed to tune (p,d,q) parameters, it takes a long time and it is neither acceptable nor applicable.
    $endgroup$
    – Amin Sh
    Aug 4 at 12:09






  • 2




    $begingroup$
    Here is a list of many sych posts at CrossValidated.
    $endgroup$
    – kjetil b halvorsen
    Aug 4 at 19:12






  • 3




    $begingroup$
    @kjetil b halvorsen You seem to be carrying over the practice from Cross Validated of editing posts to remove "Thanks". I think it's stupid to "disallow" "Thanks" and even stupider for someone to edit someone else's post just to remove it. Nevertheless, that seems to be the rule at Cross Validated, so I accepted it there. it doesn't seem to be the rule on this forum, and 'd rather not see it become the rule or practice here. I'm generally against editing other people's posts unless there's a good reason, and I don't think removing "Thanks" is a good reason. Peace out.
    $endgroup$
    – Mark L. Stone
    Aug 5 at 1:26













  • 7




    $begingroup$
    Perhaps Stats.SE has more information on time series.
    $endgroup$
    – TheSimpliFire
    Aug 4 at 10:39










  • $begingroup$
    Can't you just train 1200 independent models, one for each product?
    $endgroup$
    – Simon
    Aug 4 at 11:45










  • $begingroup$
    @Simon Since it is needed to tune (p,d,q) parameters, it takes a long time and it is neither acceptable nor applicable.
    $endgroup$
    – Amin Sh
    Aug 4 at 12:09






  • 2




    $begingroup$
    Here is a list of many sych posts at CrossValidated.
    $endgroup$
    – kjetil b halvorsen
    Aug 4 at 19:12






  • 3




    $begingroup$
    @kjetil b halvorsen You seem to be carrying over the practice from Cross Validated of editing posts to remove "Thanks". I think it's stupid to "disallow" "Thanks" and even stupider for someone to edit someone else's post just to remove it. Nevertheless, that seems to be the rule at Cross Validated, so I accepted it there. it doesn't seem to be the rule on this forum, and 'd rather not see it become the rule or practice here. I'm generally against editing other people's posts unless there's a good reason, and I don't think removing "Thanks" is a good reason. Peace out.
    $endgroup$
    – Mark L. Stone
    Aug 5 at 1:26








7




7




$begingroup$
Perhaps Stats.SE has more information on time series.
$endgroup$
– TheSimpliFire
Aug 4 at 10:39




$begingroup$
Perhaps Stats.SE has more information on time series.
$endgroup$
– TheSimpliFire
Aug 4 at 10:39












$begingroup$
Can't you just train 1200 independent models, one for each product?
$endgroup$
– Simon
Aug 4 at 11:45




$begingroup$
Can't you just train 1200 independent models, one for each product?
$endgroup$
– Simon
Aug 4 at 11:45












$begingroup$
@Simon Since it is needed to tune (p,d,q) parameters, it takes a long time and it is neither acceptable nor applicable.
$endgroup$
– Amin Sh
Aug 4 at 12:09




$begingroup$
@Simon Since it is needed to tune (p,d,q) parameters, it takes a long time and it is neither acceptable nor applicable.
$endgroup$
– Amin Sh
Aug 4 at 12:09




2




2




$begingroup$
Here is a list of many sych posts at CrossValidated.
$endgroup$
– kjetil b halvorsen
Aug 4 at 19:12




$begingroup$
Here is a list of many sych posts at CrossValidated.
$endgroup$
– kjetil b halvorsen
Aug 4 at 19:12




3




3




$begingroup$
@kjetil b halvorsen You seem to be carrying over the practice from Cross Validated of editing posts to remove "Thanks". I think it's stupid to "disallow" "Thanks" and even stupider for someone to edit someone else's post just to remove it. Nevertheless, that seems to be the rule at Cross Validated, so I accepted it there. it doesn't seem to be the rule on this forum, and 'd rather not see it become the rule or practice here. I'm generally against editing other people's posts unless there's a good reason, and I don't think removing "Thanks" is a good reason. Peace out.
$endgroup$
– Mark L. Stone
Aug 5 at 1:26





$begingroup$
@kjetil b halvorsen You seem to be carrying over the practice from Cross Validated of editing posts to remove "Thanks". I think it's stupid to "disallow" "Thanks" and even stupider for someone to edit someone else's post just to remove it. Nevertheless, that seems to be the rule at Cross Validated, so I accepted it there. it doesn't seem to be the rule on this forum, and 'd rather not see it become the rule or practice here. I'm generally against editing other people's posts unless there's a good reason, and I don't think removing "Thanks" is a good reason. Peace out.
$endgroup$
– Mark L. Stone
Aug 5 at 1:26











3 Answers
3






active

oldest

votes


















4












$begingroup$

If the 1200 products are closely related, so that trend (if any) and noise are likely to be correlated across products, a single model might make sense. If they are loosely related (so that they might share a common trend but separate noise processes), you might consider fitting a single trend model (linear regression on time?), "detrending" the data, then fitting separate ARMA models ... or perhaps just separate exponential smoothing models? If the products are unrelated, either separate ARIMA models or separate exponential smoothing models would be warranted, and a composite model would not be.






share|improve this answer









$endgroup$






















    3












    $begingroup$

    This problem is a multivariate (simply when you have more than one time-dependent variables) time series for which you can use Vector Auto Regression (VAR) technique among some others. Explanation and Python implementation of this technique has been discussed in details in here. This technique is also considered the dependencies between various time-dependent variables in the $AR(n)$ calculations.



    I am not pretty sure that the implementation code will take less than your own approaches for the forecasting of variables but at least it gives you some hints to accelerate other approaches. (of course, it also required some familiarities with univariate time-series and Python programming language).






    share|improve this answer









    $endgroup$






















      3












      $begingroup$

      The demand of 1200 product will often be related. There might be common events (Christmas, some large accident, ...) that influence all or many of the demands, substitution effects, ... or there may be relations imposed by the cost function (inventory control ...)



      These can be tackled by some common model, and this is often hierarchical forecasting. There are some posts on Cross Validated, and rather than rewrite here, this is a list.






      share|improve this answer









      $endgroup$

















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        3 Answers
        3






        active

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        3 Answers
        3






        active

        oldest

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        active

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        votes






        active

        oldest

        votes









        4












        $begingroup$

        If the 1200 products are closely related, so that trend (if any) and noise are likely to be correlated across products, a single model might make sense. If they are loosely related (so that they might share a common trend but separate noise processes), you might consider fitting a single trend model (linear regression on time?), "detrending" the data, then fitting separate ARMA models ... or perhaps just separate exponential smoothing models? If the products are unrelated, either separate ARIMA models or separate exponential smoothing models would be warranted, and a composite model would not be.






        share|improve this answer









        $endgroup$



















          4












          $begingroup$

          If the 1200 products are closely related, so that trend (if any) and noise are likely to be correlated across products, a single model might make sense. If they are loosely related (so that they might share a common trend but separate noise processes), you might consider fitting a single trend model (linear regression on time?), "detrending" the data, then fitting separate ARMA models ... or perhaps just separate exponential smoothing models? If the products are unrelated, either separate ARIMA models or separate exponential smoothing models would be warranted, and a composite model would not be.






          share|improve this answer









          $endgroup$

















            4












            4








            4





            $begingroup$

            If the 1200 products are closely related, so that trend (if any) and noise are likely to be correlated across products, a single model might make sense. If they are loosely related (so that they might share a common trend but separate noise processes), you might consider fitting a single trend model (linear regression on time?), "detrending" the data, then fitting separate ARMA models ... or perhaps just separate exponential smoothing models? If the products are unrelated, either separate ARIMA models or separate exponential smoothing models would be warranted, and a composite model would not be.






            share|improve this answer









            $endgroup$



            If the 1200 products are closely related, so that trend (if any) and noise are likely to be correlated across products, a single model might make sense. If they are loosely related (so that they might share a common trend but separate noise processes), you might consider fitting a single trend model (linear regression on time?), "detrending" the data, then fitting separate ARMA models ... or perhaps just separate exponential smoothing models? If the products are unrelated, either separate ARIMA models or separate exponential smoothing models would be warranted, and a composite model would not be.







            share|improve this answer












            share|improve this answer



            share|improve this answer










            answered Aug 4 at 17:00









            prubinprubin

            3,1515 silver badges24 bronze badges




            3,1515 silver badges24 bronze badges
























                3












                $begingroup$

                This problem is a multivariate (simply when you have more than one time-dependent variables) time series for which you can use Vector Auto Regression (VAR) technique among some others. Explanation and Python implementation of this technique has been discussed in details in here. This technique is also considered the dependencies between various time-dependent variables in the $AR(n)$ calculations.



                I am not pretty sure that the implementation code will take less than your own approaches for the forecasting of variables but at least it gives you some hints to accelerate other approaches. (of course, it also required some familiarities with univariate time-series and Python programming language).






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$



















                  3












                  $begingroup$

                  This problem is a multivariate (simply when you have more than one time-dependent variables) time series for which you can use Vector Auto Regression (VAR) technique among some others. Explanation and Python implementation of this technique has been discussed in details in here. This technique is also considered the dependencies between various time-dependent variables in the $AR(n)$ calculations.



                  I am not pretty sure that the implementation code will take less than your own approaches for the forecasting of variables but at least it gives you some hints to accelerate other approaches. (of course, it also required some familiarities with univariate time-series and Python programming language).






                  share|improve this answer









                  $endgroup$

















                    3












                    3








                    3





                    $begingroup$

                    This problem is a multivariate (simply when you have more than one time-dependent variables) time series for which you can use Vector Auto Regression (VAR) technique among some others. Explanation and Python implementation of this technique has been discussed in details in here. This technique is also considered the dependencies between various time-dependent variables in the $AR(n)$ calculations.



                    I am not pretty sure that the implementation code will take less than your own approaches for the forecasting of variables but at least it gives you some hints to accelerate other approaches. (of course, it also required some familiarities with univariate time-series and Python programming language).






                    share|improve this answer









                    $endgroup$



                    This problem is a multivariate (simply when you have more than one time-dependent variables) time series for which you can use Vector Auto Regression (VAR) technique among some others. Explanation and Python implementation of this technique has been discussed in details in here. This technique is also considered the dependencies between various time-dependent variables in the $AR(n)$ calculations.



                    I am not pretty sure that the implementation code will take less than your own approaches for the forecasting of variables but at least it gives you some hints to accelerate other approaches. (of course, it also required some familiarities with univariate time-series and Python programming language).







                    share|improve this answer












                    share|improve this answer



                    share|improve this answer










                    answered Aug 4 at 14:58









                    Oguz ToragayOguz Toragay

                    2,2472 silver badges26 bronze badges




                    2,2472 silver badges26 bronze badges
























                        3












                        $begingroup$

                        The demand of 1200 product will often be related. There might be common events (Christmas, some large accident, ...) that influence all or many of the demands, substitution effects, ... or there may be relations imposed by the cost function (inventory control ...)



                        These can be tackled by some common model, and this is often hierarchical forecasting. There are some posts on Cross Validated, and rather than rewrite here, this is a list.






                        share|improve this answer









                        $endgroup$



















                          3












                          $begingroup$

                          The demand of 1200 product will often be related. There might be common events (Christmas, some large accident, ...) that influence all or many of the demands, substitution effects, ... or there may be relations imposed by the cost function (inventory control ...)



                          These can be tackled by some common model, and this is often hierarchical forecasting. There are some posts on Cross Validated, and rather than rewrite here, this is a list.






                          share|improve this answer









                          $endgroup$

















                            3












                            3








                            3





                            $begingroup$

                            The demand of 1200 product will often be related. There might be common events (Christmas, some large accident, ...) that influence all or many of the demands, substitution effects, ... or there may be relations imposed by the cost function (inventory control ...)



                            These can be tackled by some common model, and this is often hierarchical forecasting. There are some posts on Cross Validated, and rather than rewrite here, this is a list.






                            share|improve this answer









                            $endgroup$



                            The demand of 1200 product will often be related. There might be common events (Christmas, some large accident, ...) that influence all or many of the demands, substitution effects, ... or there may be relations imposed by the cost function (inventory control ...)



                            These can be tackled by some common model, and this is often hierarchical forecasting. There are some posts on Cross Validated, and rather than rewrite here, this is a list.







                            share|improve this answer












                            share|improve this answer



                            share|improve this answer










                            answered Aug 4 at 19:40









                            kjetil b halvorsenkjetil b halvorsen

                            3753 silver badges12 bronze badges




                            3753 silver badges12 bronze badges






























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                                Middle Expansion Olielle Resaix Definition: Uttering songs of triumph shouting with joy triumphant exulting Sejunction Journal 붙다 달 고급 품목 외출 The stretch trades the screeching tin. Definition: The act of speaking with a drawl a drawl Cough Sand Definition: An uproar a quarrel a noisy outbreak Shake Iron Publicize Horse House Baby 사과 Resaix Flaggy Jelly Temporary Unequaled Puppet A drop in the bucket Shrew 성격 회원 성질 미팅 The burn frames the tacky quality. Materialistic The smoke reduces the way. Yammoe Nondescript Cheek 얼굴 배 약하다 날리다 타다 The illegal country shows the iron. Help Rule Drearien Smoke Teaching Meaty Wasp Abraham Lincoln Jaws 진심 수리하다 Size Cork Idea Convert Think Lark John Lennon 거울 청소 군 추천하다 아이스크림